Push or Pivot?

Every meaningful decision in life is a hypothesis. You choose a career, build a business, enter a relationship, move to a city, or pursue a goal because you believe it will lead somewhere worthwhile. We make an educated guess. Sometimes it works out. Other times it does not. The challenge is knowing whether disappointing results mean the hypothesis is wrong or whether it simply has not been tested properly yet.

Here is the takeaway principle. Persist while the evidence still supports the hypothesis. Pivot when the evidence meaningfully contradicts it.

Yet, people rarely know if a major choice will work out before we make it.

“This business solves a problem people will pay to solve.”

“This person and I can build a healthy relationship.”

“This career will suit my abilities and values.”

“This habit will improve my health.”

“This city will give me a better life.”

“This strategy will get me closer to my goal.”

Every hypothesis contains assumptions. In relationships, we assume that we share values, can resolve conflicts, that we invest in one another, or trust deepens over time. In business, we assume the problem is real, customers care and will pay, that the business can deliver profitably, or that new customers can be reached.

The bigger the decision the more assumptions go into it. Failure is often not everything. It could just be one wrong assumption. Or a series of them. Often, the bigger the vision, the more variables play in to it. Yet, we have to make decisions without having solved for every variable. Sometimes it works out. Other times we learn.

I recently watched “Jerry and Marge Go Large” on Netflix. Heads up spoilers in coming. It tells the story of a couple who learn to game the lottery. On the first test of his method to win the lottery, Jerry fails to win enough to fully cover the costs of his tickets. He thinks about it. The plot thickens. And he realizes that his sample size was too small. That he didn’t buy enough tickets to determine his method worked. So, he goes again, rolls the dice by investing his entire life savings in buying lottery tickets. The results? It pays off big for him.

Often in life, the question comes down to two choices. Do we push forward and continue down this path? Or do we pivot? Change the direction, the strategy, the play.

Push or Pivot? That is the question.

Why do people Pivot too early?

Discomfort is often mistaken for disconfirmation. People expect the right path to feel clear, easy or more rewarding than it actually does. When they experience rejection, uncertainty, slow progress, conflict, embarrassment, boredom, loss of initial excitement, or delayed rewards, they move to pivot. But discomfort is part of hypothesis testing. It’s not evidence against it. Just because it gets difficult does not mean it’s not worthwhile. Intuition is powerful. But evidence is often more objective.

People often judge their hypothesis before running a valid test. They send five sales messages and conclude no one wants their offer. They work out for 2 weeks and conclude the routine doesn’t work. They try one difficult conversation and decide the relationship cannot improve. They start to learn a new skill but conclude they lack talent. The issue isn’t that their hypothesis was null. Rather that the test was too weak to produce a reliable conclusion.

Jerry understood this. He rolled the dice and tested his theory. It didn’t work the first time. Push or pivot? He pushed. He realized it was an issue of volume. That he needed more tickets in order to skew the results in his direction. Often that is the case. Sample size matters. Many people quit before they’ve done enough volume, enough attempts to test if what they thought held true or was false.

It can be a challenge to recognize the right lesson that should’ve been learnt. People often confuse a bad outcome with a bad decision. The right decision can still produce a bad short-term result. It’s like hiring a promising person who disappoints. Entering a relationship with sincerity but still getting hurt. Or launching a well-researched business at the wrong time. A single negative result does not always invalidate the reasoning.

Good decisions don’t guarantee good outcomes.

They improve the odds of good outcomes across repeated decisions.

The last reason people pivot too early is to escape emotion. People change direction because the new option restores hope and removes discomfort. Emotional relief in the form of a pivot. A new business idea feels exciting because the current one demands sales. A new relationship feels easier because the existing one requires vulnerability and repair. A new goal feels energizing because the old one has entered the boring phase. A genuine pivot moves toward stronger evidence. An emotional pivot merely moves away from discomfort.

7 Signs to Help You Recognize

When to push forward

1) The underlying reason remains true

A pivot is needed when the underlying assumption has been proven to be false. Just ask yourself, “Has the evidence challenged the core premise, or only shown that achieving it is harder than expected?” If the original logic holds true then push forward.

The market clearly has the problem, but your offer has not connected yet.

The relationship has real compatibility, but communication skills are weak.

The career still fits your strengths, but you have not built enough experience.

The health goal is valid, but your routine is inconsistent.

The project remains valuable, but the timeline was unrealistic

The distinction is between “This cannot work” vs. “This has not worked yet”.

2) The test has not been run properly

Push when the evidence is limited, noisy, or poorly collected to justify a conclusion. Ask yourself:

Was the sample large enough?

Was the effort consistent?

Was the time horizon reasonable?

Was the strategy executed competently?

Were the conditions fair?

Did we test the actual hypothesis?

Did we stop before meaningful feedback could emerge?

Weak effort produces weak evidence. A hypothesis shouldn’t be abandoned because of a shit experiment. Now, that doesn’t mean blindly try harder. It means be honest about if the idea was truly tested.

3) There are signs of partial validation

The hypothesis doesn't need to be fully proven. Small signals can be enough of a leading indicator. Partial validation can suggest the core hypothesis is correct but the system isn't refined.

Universal examples include:

• Some people respond positively.

• Certain attempts perform noticeably better.

• The same strengths repeatedly create results.

• Trust is increasing, even if conflict still exists.

• The skill is improving, although the outcome has not arrived.

• Progress is uneven but measurable.

• A small number of customers buy or return.

• The process produces more learning over time.

• Others with similar circumstances have succeeded through comparable methods.

When reality gives you a small yes, investigate it further before walking away.

4) The failures are explainable and fixable

Push when you can identify a plausible cause of failure that does not invalidate the entire hypothesis.

For example:

• The offer was shown to the wrong customer.

• The message was unclear.

• The person lacked a necessary skill.

• Expectations were never communicated.

• The timeline was too aggressive.

• There was insufficient repetition.

• The environment was wrong.

• The relationship problem came from an addressable behaviour rather than a fundamental incompatibility.

• The process was inconsistent.

• Resources were allocated poorly.

The key is whether the suspected cause is:

1. Specific

2. Plausible

3. Changeable

4. Testable

“Maybe it will magically work next time” is not a reason to continue. “We have identified the likely constraint and can test it” is.

5) Results are improving or each attempt is producing new information

Trajectory matters more than the current position. Someone may still be far from the outcome, but evidence is moving in the right direction. Slow progress is still evidence. Push when the process is still teaching you something valuable.

Are attempts becoming more effective? Are you learning what works, what doesn't, or which variables mattered? Is feedback becoming more positive? Can you distinguish what they value or need? Are conversion rates improving? Where are your skills weak? What conditions improve outcomes?

Once attempts start to produce the same result and no new insights are gained, then persistence becomes repetition. The principle is to continue while you are learning. Reconsider when you are only repeating. It's important to distinguish the difficult middle part from a dead end.

6) The cost of another test is reasonable

Sometimes the question isn't whether you know the hypothesis is true. It is whether gaining more evidence is worth the cost. All experiments have a cost. Time, effort, and money are my 3 go to variables. Is it worth the time? The effort? Or the money? If it's affordable, safe, time-limited, easy to do, reversible, and informative, then push onward. It makes less sense when you have to stake your financial security, health, or dignity on a weak hypothesis.

Uncertainty is tolerable when the next test is cheap. It is dangerous when the next test could permanently shift your life.

7) You possess agency & it's consistent with your values

Push when there are meaningful actions you can take that could change the results. Sometimes people persist where the outcome is outside their influence. In business, you can change the offer, audience, message, pricing, or execution. In health, you can change your habits, seek medical support, or alter the environment. In relationships, you can control your honesty, communication, boundaries, and behaviors. But you can't control the other person's willingness, character, or choices.

Persistence makes sense when your actions can influence the outcomes. It's dangerous when success depends entirely on someone else becoming a different person. It's dangerous when you have to become someone you wouldn't respect. Push on when the pursuit aligns with your values and remains a worthwhile goal that is meaningful to you. Pivot when the cost is not worthwhile. Distinguish between committed persistence vs. sunk-cost captivity.

How to Pivot

A pivot does not mean abandoning the goal. It is changing the approach based on what the evidence has taught you. Iterate and evolve. A good pivot isn't random. It's an intentional change. Keeping what was true, identifying what caused the failure and changing the smallest meaningful variable.

Most people pivot poorly. They change the goal, the strategy, the environment, the audience, and their expectations all at once. When the next attempt succeeds, they have no idea why. They created movement but not knowledge.

Keep the goal when it still makes sense. Change the variable that is preventing it.

I'm going to outline the steps to make a pivot in simple language.

1) State the original hypothesis. Make it specific. You cannot intelligently update something that wasn't clearly defined.

2) Separate the facts from the story. What are the metrics by which you measured your hypothesis? The story is what you tell yourself (often to feel better about it). The facts are the measurable evidence. People pivot from an emotional conclusion rather than an observable result.

3) Identify which assumptions failed. There are often several assumptions in your hypothesis. One disappointing result doesn't tell you which assumption was wrong. Define the assumptions and identify which ones were null.

4) Find the constraints. A useful pivot targets the factor that is most limiting the results. Ask: If I could improve only one part of this situation, which improvement would most likely change the outcome?

5) Change one important variable. Design a focused change. When you shuffle up too many things, it becomes unclear what wasn't working. One change gives clear results.

6) Define the new hypothesis. Every pivot is a new hypothesis. A pivot contains a prediction and you are now running a new test of that pivot.

This methodology applies to many things in life. Relationships, business, science, careers, health, self-growth, whatever. Boil it down to 6 easy steps. Hypothesis, Variables, Methods/measurements, Experiment, Results, Conclusion. Rinse and repeat.

Evidence Decides to Push or Pivot

Every decision begins as a hypothesis. You choose a career because you believe it will create the life you want. You start a business because you believe people will value what you offer. You enter a relationship because you believe the two of you can build something meaningful.

You cannot know with certainty. You make the best decision you can with the information available, then reality begins to answer. The difficulty is interpreting that answer correctly.

A setback does not always mean the hypothesis was wrong. Sometimes the test was too small. Sometimes the execution was weak. Sometimes the timeline was unrealistic. Sometimes you are simply experiencing the difficult stage that exists between beginning and becoming good.

That is when you push. You continue when the underlying premise remains sound, progress is emerging, the problems are fixable, and each attempt is teaching you something new. But persistence is not automatically courageous.

There comes a point when the evidence changes. The same patterns repeat. The assumptions supporting the original decision begin to collapse. More effort produces no meaningful learning. Continuing becomes less about conviction and more about ego, fear, or sunk cost. That is when you pivot.

A good pivot is not a panicked escape. It is a disciplined update. You examine what happened, identify the assumption most likely to be wrong, change the variable most responsible for the outcome, and test again. You do not have to abandon the destination every time the road becomes difficult. But you should not remain loyal to a road simply because you have already travelled far down it.

The goal is not to prove that your first hypothesis was correct. The goal is to move closer to the truth. Push when the evidence says the idea still deserves a fair test. Pivot when the evidence points toward a better path. Then repeat.

Observe. Hypothesize. Test. Learn. Update. That is not only how progress is made in science. It is how a thoughtful life is built.

Connect

Join me to share thoughts and projects

© 2025. All rights reserved.